Four years after a global pandemic and lockdowns drove the automotive industry into a brick wall, with major supply chain kinks and withered car lot inventories, things are back to normal, in terms of inventory, according to AutoTrader.

New vehicle inventories in Canada on AutoTrader’s marketplace hit a record high of 168,000 vehicles in February – a 78 per cent year-over- year increase.

Used vehicle inventory is also up, with 202,521 used vehicles on the market in February.

“Dealership lots are currently packed with used vehicle inventory, as the influx of new vehicle availability is contributing to higher volumes of pre-owned vehicles,” AutoTrader says in its latest marketplace report.

“With significant signs of inventory recovery – in some cases, the highest levels recorded since the pandemic – and record price drops, the data suggests now is the closest to a buyer’s market we’ve seen in years.”

In the early days of the pandemic, there were supply chain interruptions and auto makers cut back on production, thinking vehicle sales would plummet. But demand for new cars actually remained strong. As new car inventories shrank, prices rose, and car dealers scrambled to fill demand with used cars.

Now there’s a bit of a glut of used cars for sale, so prices are coming down.

“In January 2024, AutoTrader’s pricing data revealed record-breaking decreases across used inventory pricing, with 35 per cent of used vehicles seeing a drop in pricing – the first in marketplace history,” AutoTrader says.

According to the most recent data from Statistics Canada, there were 128,193 cars and trucks sold in Canada in December 2023, which was higher than the pre-pandemic number of 116,466 in December 2019.

As of February, the average price for a new vehicle in Canada was $66,979 and a used vehicle $38,451.

In B.C., the average used car price in B.C. was $43,946 in June 2023, said Baris Akyurek, vice-president of insights and intelligence for AutoTrader.

In February, the average price for used vehicles in B.C. came down to $41,811, he said. He added the higher average price for used vehicles in B.C., compared with the rest of Canada, may be attributed to the fact that, in B.C., there tend to be more EV sales, and EVs tend to be more costly than conventional vehicles.

One recent trend in new vehicle inventories is the increase in electric vehicles. Whereas there were only 2,409 EVs listed on the AutoTrader site Canada-wide in 2023, there were 13,573 listed last week. In B.C., there were only 481 new EVs listed last year. Today, there are 4,114.

Akyurek attributes this increase to the fact there are simply more EV models available.

“In 2023, there were around 60 EV models that were being manufactured, and the expectation is by the end of 2024 there will be 145 different make and models,” he said.

However, AutoTrader surveys suggest that some Canadians may no longer be as keen to buy an EV as they were a couple of years ago.

In March 2022, an AutoTrader survey on buyer intentions found 68 per cent of respondents said they would consider an EV for their next car. In March 2023, that fell to 58 per cent.

Akyurek notes that in March 2022, gasoline prices had skyrocketed, as a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and subsequent spiking oil prices. Whenever gas prices spike, interest in EVs go up.

“There is a direct correlation to between what happens to gas prices and EV interests,” Akyurek said.

“EVs are still selling, but are they selling as fast as the supply? No.”

 

Bennett, N. (2024, March 13). New vehicle inventories in Canada at record high: Autotrader. Business in Vancouver. https://www.biv.com/news/economy-law-politics/new-vehicle-inventories-in-canada-at-record-high-autotrader-8441291

 

Due to supply constraints and high demand, prices for vehicles skyrocketed during the pandemic. Now, they’re starting to come down

Unsold 2024 Mustang Mach-E electric vehicles sit at a Ford dealership, Jan. 21, 2024, in Broomfield, Colo. As vehicle inventory and manufacturing catches up to consumer to demand, vehicle prices are beginning to drop. PHOTO BY DAVID ZALUBOWSKI /THE ASSOCIATED PRESS

 

The COVID-19 pandemic hit many industries with supply issues, including the car industry. The pandemic, combined with an increased demand for personal vehicles due to concerns with public transit and an increased desire to travel locally, triggered a large spike in prices for new and used cars across Canada. While car prices are still significantly higher now than pre-pandemic, they are expected to continue dropping.

“With supply chain disruptions easing up, we’re started to see new car manufacturing improving and new cars starting to come into the market,” said Baris Akyurek, vice president of insights and intelligence at AutoTrader.ca. “We estimated that between 2020 and 2023, 1.5 million fewer new cars were sold. Now that new cars are coming back, they’re selling really well. Last year saw an 11.8 per cent year-over-year increase (in car sales). The first two months of 2024 have been pretty strong as well.”

The high-cost of new vehicles raised the cost of vehicles on the used market as well, as people were holding onto their old cars for much longer. However, according to Akyurek the influx of new vehicles has significantly impacted the used car market. According to AutoTrader.ca data, 50 per cent of people buying new cars will trade in their old vehicle. So, as new car sales rise, the used-car market sees a steady stream of cars, driving those prices down too.

“In February 2024, the average price of a used car is now $38,451,” Akyurek said. “On a year-over-year basis, that’s down 2.1 per cent.”

This graph from AutoTrader.ca shows the increase in car inventory from February 2020-February 2024. According to the Canadian online car marketplace, the increase in inventory has brought the price of vehicles down. (Graph courtesy of AutoTrader.ca) PHOTO BY AUTOTRADER.CA /AutoTrader.ca

 

Despite the drop in prices for both new and used vehicles, they are still significantly higher than in 2019. Akyurek said that in February 2019  the average price for a new car was $45,255 while used was $26,331. In February 2024, the average cost for a new car is almost 50 per cent higher at $66,979 with used cars also much costlier at $38,451.

“The prices are still coming down, but having said that, one of the questions I receive pretty frequently is ‘What’s going to happen to car prices?’” Akyurek said. “I don’t want to speculate, but given the increase in overall demand since the beginning of the pandemic… We don’t expect to see prices to go back to pre-COVID levels anytime soon.”

According to Adam Tietz, a sales consultant at Don Valley Volkswagen in Toronto, his dealership did not have as much of a shortage of vehicles compared to other brands. Still, the overall lack of inventory meant consumers had less room to negotiate prices with dealers, especially for cars in high demand.

“Basically, you were going to pay what the car is priced at, the sticker price,” said Tietz. “Now, since a lot of dealers have (more inventory), there’s more discounts and negotiations.”

Tietz said that some vehicles could have wait times of up to two years, with the Toyota Sienna being an example. The Sienna has forum pages dedicated to it online, where Canadians share how long they had to wait to receive their vehicle, many of them waiting 11 months or longer.

“When you need a car, you need a car,” said Tietz, “You’re sort of at the mercy of the market. If you can wait it out, that’s great… Even me, I needed a car in the summer and the market was its peak. Sometimes you just need one.”

For those looking to pick up a new vehicle, Akyurek said that, on a micro level, different brands of vehicles can have significantly different prices depending on the market.

“The most important thing is doing your research and understanding the market,” Akyurek said. “Going back to inventory availability, for example, we talked about (how) new cars are coming back to the market, but if you segmented that data, European brands and domestic brands’ availability are much better compared to Asian brands.

“Once you find the vehicle you need, I suggest you pull the trigger right away,” Akyurek said. “Because, depending on what you’re looking for, the next time you want to inquire about that vehicle, it might not be there.”

 

Casemore, J. (2024, March 8). Vehicle prices continue to drop following influx of car inventory, … National Post. https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/car-market-price-drop

In working with friends and colleagues at the Used Car Dealers Association, DesRosiers Automotive Consultants reached out to the Canadian used vehicle dealer community and discovered that there are major dynamics at play as the market shifts.

More than 400 UCDA members responded to DAC’s survey, both independent dealers and the used vehicle arm of franchised new vehicle dealers. They offered their view on the used vehicle market in 2023, along with their expectations for the current year.

“With a resurgent new vehicle market, the outlook for the used vehicle sector will be fascinating to watch,” said Andrew King, Managing Partner at DAC, in a statement. “While some consumers are turning their attention back to the new vehicle market, there will be a shortage of recent model year used vehicles for the next few years as off-lease numbers plummet.”

King also said that increases in new vehicle prices, ZEV mandates, and financing shifts all point to the used vehicle market as being “highly dynamic in 2024 and beyond.”

For current year sales expectations, franchised new vehicle dealers and independent used vehicle dealers seem optimistic. On average, they expect to see growth from 203 to 224 units. Among franchised new dealers, sales are expected to rise from an average of 311 units to 341. And sales among independent used dealers are anticipated to grow from 160 to 177 units.

However, when DAC asked dealers about supply and the sourcing of vehicles over the past six months, which they described as “a major point of concern in recent years,” they said respondents were split. Forty-three-point-three per cent of independent used vehicle dealers see the situation as worsening. And 37.3% of franchised new vehicle dealers see it improving.

 

 

dealer, C. auto, Lefko, P., & MacDonald, S. (2024, March 1). Key dynamics at play as used vehicle market shifts. Canadian Auto Dealer. https://canadianautodealer.ca/2024/03/key-dynamics-at-play-as-used-vehicle-market-shifts/