Four years after a global pandemic and lockdowns drove the automotive industry into a brick wall, with major supply chain kinks and withered car lot inventories, things are back to normal, in terms of inventory, according to AutoTrader.

New vehicle inventories in Canada on AutoTrader’s marketplace hit a record high of 168,000 vehicles in February – a 78 per cent year-over- year increase.

Used vehicle inventory is also up, with 202,521 used vehicles on the market in February.

“Dealership lots are currently packed with used vehicle inventory, as the influx of new vehicle availability is contributing to higher volumes of pre-owned vehicles,” AutoTrader says in its latest marketplace report.

“With significant signs of inventory recovery – in some cases, the highest levels recorded since the pandemic – and record price drops, the data suggests now is the closest to a buyer’s market we’ve seen in years.”

In the early days of the pandemic, there were supply chain interruptions and auto makers cut back on production, thinking vehicle sales would plummet. But demand for new cars actually remained strong. As new car inventories shrank, prices rose, and car dealers scrambled to fill demand with used cars.

Now there’s a bit of a glut of used cars for sale, so prices are coming down.

“In January 2024, AutoTrader’s pricing data revealed record-breaking decreases across used inventory pricing, with 35 per cent of used vehicles seeing a drop in pricing – the first in marketplace history,” AutoTrader says.

According to the most recent data from Statistics Canada, there were 128,193 cars and trucks sold in Canada in December 2023, which was higher than the pre-pandemic number of 116,466 in December 2019.

As of February, the average price for a new vehicle in Canada was $66,979 and a used vehicle $38,451.

In B.C., the average used car price in B.C. was $43,946 in June 2023, said Baris Akyurek, vice-president of insights and intelligence for AutoTrader.

In February, the average price for used vehicles in B.C. came down to $41,811, he said. He added the higher average price for used vehicles in B.C., compared with the rest of Canada, may be attributed to the fact that, in B.C., there tend to be more EV sales, and EVs tend to be more costly than conventional vehicles.

One recent trend in new vehicle inventories is the increase in electric vehicles. Whereas there were only 2,409 EVs listed on the AutoTrader site Canada-wide in 2023, there were 13,573 listed last week. In B.C., there were only 481 new EVs listed last year. Today, there are 4,114.

Akyurek attributes this increase to the fact there are simply more EV models available.

“In 2023, there were around 60 EV models that were being manufactured, and the expectation is by the end of 2024 there will be 145 different make and models,” he said.

However, AutoTrader surveys suggest that some Canadians may no longer be as keen to buy an EV as they were a couple of years ago.

In March 2022, an AutoTrader survey on buyer intentions found 68 per cent of respondents said they would consider an EV for their next car. In March 2023, that fell to 58 per cent.

Akyurek notes that in March 2022, gasoline prices had skyrocketed, as a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and subsequent spiking oil prices. Whenever gas prices spike, interest in EVs go up.

“There is a direct correlation to between what happens to gas prices and EV interests,” Akyurek said.

“EVs are still selling, but are they selling as fast as the supply? No.”

 

Bennett, N. (2024, March 13). New vehicle inventories in Canada at record high: Autotrader. Business in Vancouver. https://www.biv.com/news/economy-law-politics/new-vehicle-inventories-in-canada-at-record-high-autotrader-8441291

 

Due to supply constraints and high demand, prices for vehicles skyrocketed during the pandemic. Now, they’re starting to come down

Unsold 2024 Mustang Mach-E electric vehicles sit at a Ford dealership, Jan. 21, 2024, in Broomfield, Colo. As vehicle inventory and manufacturing catches up to consumer to demand, vehicle prices are beginning to drop. PHOTO BY DAVID ZALUBOWSKI /THE ASSOCIATED PRESS

 

The COVID-19 pandemic hit many industries with supply issues, including the car industry. The pandemic, combined with an increased demand for personal vehicles due to concerns with public transit and an increased desire to travel locally, triggered a large spike in prices for new and used cars across Canada. While car prices are still significantly higher now than pre-pandemic, they are expected to continue dropping.

“With supply chain disruptions easing up, we’re started to see new car manufacturing improving and new cars starting to come into the market,” said Baris Akyurek, vice president of insights and intelligence at AutoTrader.ca. “We estimated that between 2020 and 2023, 1.5 million fewer new cars were sold. Now that new cars are coming back, they’re selling really well. Last year saw an 11.8 per cent year-over-year increase (in car sales). The first two months of 2024 have been pretty strong as well.”

The high-cost of new vehicles raised the cost of vehicles on the used market as well, as people were holding onto their old cars for much longer. However, according to Akyurek the influx of new vehicles has significantly impacted the used car market. According to AutoTrader.ca data, 50 per cent of people buying new cars will trade in their old vehicle. So, as new car sales rise, the used-car market sees a steady stream of cars, driving those prices down too.

“In February 2024, the average price of a used car is now $38,451,” Akyurek said. “On a year-over-year basis, that’s down 2.1 per cent.”

This graph from AutoTrader.ca shows the increase in car inventory from February 2020-February 2024. According to the Canadian online car marketplace, the increase in inventory has brought the price of vehicles down. (Graph courtesy of AutoTrader.ca) PHOTO BY AUTOTRADER.CA /AutoTrader.ca

 

Despite the drop in prices for both new and used vehicles, they are still significantly higher than in 2019. Akyurek said that in February 2019  the average price for a new car was $45,255 while used was $26,331. In February 2024, the average cost for a new car is almost 50 per cent higher at $66,979 with used cars also much costlier at $38,451.

“The prices are still coming down, but having said that, one of the questions I receive pretty frequently is ‘What’s going to happen to car prices?’” Akyurek said. “I don’t want to speculate, but given the increase in overall demand since the beginning of the pandemic… We don’t expect to see prices to go back to pre-COVID levels anytime soon.”

According to Adam Tietz, a sales consultant at Don Valley Volkswagen in Toronto, his dealership did not have as much of a shortage of vehicles compared to other brands. Still, the overall lack of inventory meant consumers had less room to negotiate prices with dealers, especially for cars in high demand.

“Basically, you were going to pay what the car is priced at, the sticker price,” said Tietz. “Now, since a lot of dealers have (more inventory), there’s more discounts and negotiations.”

Tietz said that some vehicles could have wait times of up to two years, with the Toyota Sienna being an example. The Sienna has forum pages dedicated to it online, where Canadians share how long they had to wait to receive their vehicle, many of them waiting 11 months or longer.

“When you need a car, you need a car,” said Tietz, “You’re sort of at the mercy of the market. If you can wait it out, that’s great… Even me, I needed a car in the summer and the market was its peak. Sometimes you just need one.”

For those looking to pick up a new vehicle, Akyurek said that, on a micro level, different brands of vehicles can have significantly different prices depending on the market.

“The most important thing is doing your research and understanding the market,” Akyurek said. “Going back to inventory availability, for example, we talked about (how) new cars are coming back to the market, but if you segmented that data, European brands and domestic brands’ availability are much better compared to Asian brands.

“Once you find the vehicle you need, I suggest you pull the trigger right away,” Akyurek said. “Because, depending on what you’re looking for, the next time you want to inquire about that vehicle, it might not be there.”

 

Casemore, J. (2024, March 8). Vehicle prices continue to drop following influx of car inventory, … National Post. https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/car-market-price-drop

In working with friends and colleagues at the Used Car Dealers Association, DesRosiers Automotive Consultants reached out to the Canadian used vehicle dealer community and discovered that there are major dynamics at play as the market shifts.

More than 400 UCDA members responded to DAC’s survey, both independent dealers and the used vehicle arm of franchised new vehicle dealers. They offered their view on the used vehicle market in 2023, along with their expectations for the current year.

“With a resurgent new vehicle market, the outlook for the used vehicle sector will be fascinating to watch,” said Andrew King, Managing Partner at DAC, in a statement. “While some consumers are turning their attention back to the new vehicle market, there will be a shortage of recent model year used vehicles for the next few years as off-lease numbers plummet.”

King also said that increases in new vehicle prices, ZEV mandates, and financing shifts all point to the used vehicle market as being “highly dynamic in 2024 and beyond.”

For current year sales expectations, franchised new vehicle dealers and independent used vehicle dealers seem optimistic. On average, they expect to see growth from 203 to 224 units. Among franchised new dealers, sales are expected to rise from an average of 311 units to 341. And sales among independent used dealers are anticipated to grow from 160 to 177 units.

However, when DAC asked dealers about supply and the sourcing of vehicles over the past six months, which they described as “a major point of concern in recent years,” they said respondents were split. Forty-three-point-three per cent of independent used vehicle dealers see the situation as worsening. And 37.3% of franchised new vehicle dealers see it improving.

 

 

dealer, C. auto, Lefko, P., & MacDonald, S. (2024, March 1). Key dynamics at play as used vehicle market shifts. Canadian Auto Dealer. https://canadianautodealer.ca/2024/03/key-dynamics-at-play-as-used-vehicle-market-shifts/

 

Canada’s used wholesale market saw prices decline -0.42% for the week ending on Feb. 3 which, like last week, is not overly far (in comparison to some of 2023’s price declines) from the prior week’s -0.63%. And the 2017-2019 average of the same week was -0.28%, according to Canadian Black Book.

“The Canadian market continued to decrease, with declines closer to the historical average than the last few weeks,” said CBB in its Market Insights update. “Supply is building with decreasing demand for vehicles at auction on both sides of the border.”

The car segment fell by -0.52% compared to the prior week’s -0.76%. And truck/SUV segment prices were down -0.32% compared to the previous period’s -0.46%. Two out of 22 segments’ values were up for the week: sub-compact luxury crossovers (+0.21%) and compact vans (+0.10%).

In the United States, the overall car and truck segments declined -0.33% last week — same as the prior week’s decrease. The volume-weighted car segments fell -0.22%, compared to the previous -0.26% decline. And trucks were down -0.38%; versus the prior week’s -0.36%.

In Canada, the segments in the car category that experienced the least decreases were premium sports cars (-0.09%) and luxury cars (-0.12%). The most significant decline came from sub-compact cars (-1.25%) and compact cars (-1.07%).

For trucks/SUVs, full-size crossovers/SUVs (-0.50%), compact crossovers/SUVs (-0.47%) and full-size pickups (-0.46%) managed the largest declines. However, two segments had increases: sub-compact luxury crossovers (+0.21%) and compact vans (+0.10%).

The average listing price for used vehicles, as the 14-day moving average, was approximately $37,000. The analysis is based on around 220,000 used vehicles listed for sale on Canadian dealer lots, according to CBB.

The full report is available here.

 

 

Phillips, T., dealer, C. auto, & Lefko, P. (2024, February 7). Used vehicle market price declines inch closer to historical average. Canadian Auto Dealer. https://canadianautodealer.ca/2024/02/used-vehicle-market-price-declines-inch-closer-to-historical-average/

 

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Used vehicle values have trended downward on both sides of the border in recent months. A recent analysis expects pricing to remain high.

Canada Black Book’s Used Vehicle Retention Index reported values in November at 150.2, meaning used vehicles aged two to six years were 50.2 per cent higher than its benchmark. The index peaked at 165 in March 2022 and hasn’t been this low since it was 152.6 in November 2021. The index sat at 155.2 in October.

In the U.S., values are higher. J.D. Power reported its Used Vehicle Value Index at 197.2 in November, down from a peak of 223.8 in December 2021.

“With our expectation that the OEMs will be disciplined in matching future production levels with demand, we anticipate that the economic difference between new and used vehicle values will remain at levels that will drive sound demand for used vehicles and, in turn, spur sustained elevated pricing,” noted rating agency DBRS Morningstar.

The agency also anticipates higher levels of new vehicle supply and pent-up demand to be sustained for both new and used vehicles for the year. It believes affordability issues around new vehicles will temper growth in this area, which will be a corresponding tailwind for used vehicles.

Meanwhile, leasing volumes are expected to improve as new vehicle inventory builds.

“Overall, we anticipate recovering levels of leases will be driven by improved OEM production and higher inventory, as well as due to OEMs having improving visibility into used vehicle values,” DBRS observed. “Additionally, with growing inventory levels, we anticipate OEMs increasing the use of incentives to drive new vehicle sales, including lease programs.”

 

Malik, A. (2024, January 25). What will be the story for used vehicles in 2024?. Auto Service World. https://www.autoserviceworld.com/what-will-be-the-story-for-used-vehicles-in-2024/

There’s been a bit of an up and down with Canadian used wholesale market prices, with declines ranging from steep to less steep. Last week was notable at -1.06%, but this week the decline in prices is -0.51% for the period ending on Jan. 13, 2024.

The 2017-2019 average of the same week was -0.36%. The car segment fell by -0.59% this past week (compared to the prior week’s -0.67%). And truck/SUV segment prices were down -0.42% (compared to the previously steep -1.45%). Not a single segments’ values increased for the week.

“The Canadian market continued to decrease, with declines around 50% more than the historical average,” said Canadian Black Book in its latest Market Insights report. “Supply is building with decreasing demand for vehicles at auction on both sides of the border.”

In the United States, the overall car and truck segments decreased -0.63% last week and -0.68% the prior week. The volume-weighted car segments were down -0.39% (versus the previous -0.49%), while trucks decreased by -0.73% (compared to the prior week’s -0.77%).

In the Canadian market, and specifically the car segment, luxury cars showed a minimal decline (-0.02%) in pricing, along with premium sports cars (-0.33%). The most significant decrease came from compact cars (-1.11%), followed closely by prestige luxury cars (-1.01%).

For trucks/SUVs, the largest declines were sub-compact crossovers (-1.74%), sub-compact luxury crossovers (-1.23%) and minivans (-1.03%). As for the smallest decreases, the segments worth noting include full-size vans (-0.09%) and compact vans (-0.12%).

The average listing price for used vehicles, as per the 14-day moving average, was approximately $37,600. The analysis is based on approximately 210,000 vehicles listed for sale on Canadian dealer lots, according to CBB.

The full report is available here.

 

dealer, C. auto, dealer, C. auto, & Lefko, P. (2024, January 17). Used car market price declines still more than historical average. Canadian Auto Dealer. https://canadianautodealer.ca/2024/01/used-car-market-price-declines-still-more-than-historical-average/

 

 

Dealers can expect similar demand for new and used vehicles in the months ahead.

As we near the end of the year, it is clear that used vehicles remain the go-to option for many consumers. And yet, new vehicle inventory is expected to continue to move forward in the new year as demand remains, giving dealers a ray of hope for 2024.

In an interview with Canadian auto dealer, Daniel Ross, Canadian Black Books’ Senior Manager of Industry Insights & Residual Value Strategy, said he expects new vehicle inventory and new sales volume to be higher in 2024. On the flip side, he does not see used vehicle supply as sufficient enough to support the demand coming its way.

“We’re probably seeing more of a stagnant or maybe a leveling off of MSRP increases on the new car side. So that might be a better story for new cars as they come back to the market. But used cars, we’ve already had three-plus years of less-than-perfect new car sales and that’s going to infiltrate on the returning vehicles to today’s market — or tomorrow’s market if you will,” said Ross.

He expects this issue will hamper supplies even more, while the used vehicle supply is anticipated to be a smaller portion of the overall volume in the market than it is today. This, in turn, should result in better retention on value and, possibly, still high residual values — particularly in the short term.

“That’s kind of going to illustrate what happens next year in terms of new cars moving forward in sales volume, but still incremental versus used cars being even more hampered on inventory, keeping those prices relatively high,” said Ross.

He suggested that dealers keep an eye on wholesale prices and how used vehicle volume will play out next year. Used vehicle supply is anticipated to worsen before it improves.

Ross also noted that new vehicle sales, lease trade-ins or lease maturities are not coming back to the market nearly in the fashion they used to.

“If a dealer is looking for good used vehicles to fill their lot, it’s going to be tough to do that next year as well. They can rely a little bit more on the new car side of things, but lots of consumers are looking for used vehicles. Two-to-six-year-old vehicles are predominantly what they’re looking for,” he said, adding that the result may create a tougher opportunity to buy, especially in open auctions.

A slow decline is also expected in 2024, though nothing extreme; it will be segment-specific due to changing consumer trends in favour of cars and smaller SUVs. “That’s kind of what I would incentivize dealers to sort of look at more carefully, in terms of their inventory levels and where they want to focus.”

As for electric vehicles, the demand appears to be weakening — slightly. But as EVs remain in the early stages of adoption, Ross said it will be interesting to see how the market fares in 2024, knowing that some key players will be introducing vehicles in certain segments of the Canadian market that are expected to sell well. “So that’ll be good,” said Ross.

 

Lefko, P., dealer, C. auto, Ockedahl, C., dealer, C. auto, & Lefko, P. (2023, December 21). Sales, trends and predictions for 2024. Canadian Auto Dealer. https://canadianautodealer.ca/2023/12/sales-trends-and-predictions-for-2024/

 

When will used cars become affordable again?

 

Only those living under proverbial rocks would be unaware of the dramatic surge in vehicle prices over the last three years. The laws of economics applied before, during, and after the pandemic.

Pairing reasonably healthy demand with limited availability initially eliminated new vehicle incentives. Before long, MSRPs were rising in response to a critical inventory shortages and high demand. The forces of a global supply chain crunch eventually propelled inflation to uncomfortable levels. Central banks responded with elevated interest rates, which, when combined with record-high MSRPs, sent average monthly payments to the moon.

All the while, Canada’s pre-owned vehicle market was tied at the hip to the new vehicle market. Much as budget-oriented pre-owned shoppers prefer to see used prices reflect their own preconceived notions of what a 10-year-old car should cost, the new and used markets do not — and can not — exist in their own independent vacuums.

It only takes consideration of a tiny corner of the market to understand why the many moving parts of different automotive markets actually move in response to one another. Use the Toyota Sienna and some rough math as an example. In pre-pandemic 2019, an entry-level Toyota Sienna was priced at $35,295. We can safely assume that five years later the Sienna has lost 50 per cent of its value. Call it $18,000 for a five-year-old base Sienna. Remember, it’s 2019, so Sienna production is strong enough to sustain demand at dealers, which means trade-ins are flowing and there is, consequently, decent selection of both new and pre-owned Siennas. You might have even scored a deal.

Fast forward to 2023 and the price of an entry-level Sienna has grown by nearly 20 per cent; rising interest rates driving payments even higher. Now, however, Sienna production isn’t strong enough to sustain demand at dealers, which means trade-ins aren’t flowing and there are, consequently, few Siennas available on the pre-owned market. That supply crunch is exacerbated by a three-year period of limited new availability. We can assume therefore that the five-year-old Sienna now isn’t losing 50 per cent of its value; it’s more like 40 per cent at worst. In other words, a five-year-old Sienna is now worth roughly $7,500 more than it would have been in pre-pandemic 2019.

But here’s the kicker: when rising new vehicle prices pull prices for late-model pre-owned vehicles higher, prices for older vehicles are pulled higher, as well. These factors are amplified when availability decreases; calmed when availability increases.

But that’s just one hypothetical example. What’s really happening in Canada’s used vehicle market, and is there any reason to believe used cars are going to be affordable anytime soon? Based on current market reports from AutoTrader.caJ.D. Power Canada, and Canadian Black Book, here are 10 key numbers that illustrate just how warped Canada’s pre-owned market has become.

Average used car price

In each of the third-quarter’s three months, Canada’s average pre-owned prices decreased, month-over-month. Yet the average pre-owned price — $39,155, according to AutoTrader, is still nearly $9,000 higher than it was at this time in 2021.

How many weeks do you need to work to pay off a used car?

AutoTrader says that in the third-quarter of 2023, the average income-earning Canadian required 33 weeks of wages to afford a used vehicle. Think that’s high? It’s 55 weeks of income for a new vehicle..

What’s the average used pickup price?

One of the first automotive-related signs of the supply chain crisis in 2020/2021 was the sudden lack of availability of new pickup trucks. Pre-owned truck prices skyrocketed. Although the surge in prices has stabilized somewhat, average pre-owned pickup prices in the third-quarter were up 7-per-cent, year-over-year, according to AutoTrader. That translates to an eye-watering $48,787.

The most expensive place in Canada to buy a used car

Although vehicles are expensive, well, everywhere, pre-owned prices are highest on the west coast; lowest on the east coast. The average price of a pre-owned vehicle, AutoTrader says, is now $43,003 in British Columbia, up 3 per cent from 2022’s Q3. That’s about $7,500 more than the average price of a pre-owned vehicle in Atlantic Canada.

How does the average new car price affect used prices?

How is it possible for pre-owned prices to be so high? Pre-owned prices don’t necessarily rise hand-in-hand with new vehicles prices, but there are strong correlations. J.D. Power data shows that the average price for new vehicles in Canada has remained above $50,000 in nine consecutive months, from March 2023 through November.

Are new vehicle prices rising?

AutoTrader says the average new vehicle list price is now 43-per-cent higher than it was just two years ago in the third-quarter of 2021.

Canadian are borrowing money to purchase new vehicles

Automakers can justify this continuation of high new vehicle prices — consequently pulled pre-owned prices higher — because Canadians continue to show their willingness to make the math work. How? It’s not by paying out of pocket — Canadians are borrowing. And they’re borrowing over extended timelines. In November, J.D. Power says, 58 per cent of new vehicle transactions were financed with terms of at least 84 months.

Average monthly car payments are on the rise

With prices pulled higher and interest rates higher than much of the car-buying public has ever seen, payments invariably rise, as well. The average monthly payment on a used vehicle now, AutoTrader says, is around $650. That’s 40 per cent higher than it was at the onset of the pandemic.

Will used price decrease?

In the week ending December 2, the 48th week of the year, pre-owned wholesale vehicle values underwent the greatest weekly price decrease of the year, according to Canadian Black Book.

Which used vehicle category is increasing most?

The category experiencing the biggest year-over-year increase in pre-owned prices isn’t minivans, trucks, or SUVs — it’s passenger cars, with prices up 8 per cent compared to the third-quarter of 2022. “We are witnessing higher demand for more affordable/fuel-efficient vehicles,” AutoTrader says, a quest that historically drives buyers toward smaller and less costly sedans and hatchbacks.

Meanwhile, new cars are out of reach for so many people. The average price of a new passenger car is 52-per-cent higher this year than last, strikingly higher than the increases in other categories: 20 per cent for minivans, 16 per cent for SUVs, and 7 per cent for trucks. The cause, of course, isn’t just inflationary pressure — it’s the fact that affordable cars are disappearing from the market.

Can pre-owned vehicles become affordable? For that to happen, new vehicles have to become at least somewhat more affordable. And for that to happen, new vehicles have to become more available.

While “inventory levels are still down compared to pre-COVID levels,” according to AutoTrader, they’re rising rapidly. Year-over-year, inventory levels of key categories are far stronger now than they were at the end of 2022 Q3: 51 per cent for pickups, 70 per cent for cars, 71 per cent stronger for SUVs, and 101 per cent for minivans.

 

Cain, T. (2023, December 13). 10 Facts and figures that prove Canada’s used car market is still warped. Driving. https://driving.ca/column/driving-by-numbers/10-numbers-prove-canadas-used-car-market-warped-2023

 

 

 

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