The first half of 2026 is in the books. The short version: wholesale values are correcting, retail prices are barely moving, and supply is still tight. For dealers across Southern Ontario, the mid-year numbers from Canadian Black Book, CARFAX Canada and AutoTrader give a pretty clear read on where things stand and what to watch through the fall.

The wholesale correction is real, but it is slowing down

Canadian Black Book says wholesale vehicle values in Canada fell 4 percent in the first half of 2026. Their Used Vehicle Retention Index sat at 128.0 in June, down from 129.7 in May and 8 percent softer than a year earlier. Three of the first four months of the year saw wholesale declines.

What is behind it? CBB points to a few things at once. Geopolitical events whose effects are only now becoming clear, cautious consumers, and the expectation that used supply is about to lift. Daniel Ross, CBB’s director of strategic market insights, says that with the Strait of Hormuz situation settling and a decision reached on CUSMA, the market can finally get a better read on where the rest of 2026 is headed. His call is that the back half of the year will see less value decline than the same stretch of 2025.

The latest weekly numbers back him up. For the week ending July 4, wholesale values slipped just 0.06 percent, a big improvement over the 0.50 percent drop the week before. Cars fell 0.09 percent and trucks and SUVs 0.04 percent, and both did better than the historical average for that week.

Not every segment is moving the same way

Look under the hood of those overall numbers and the segments are pulling in very different directions. In the latest weekly CBB report, mid-size cars posted the strongest gain at 0.85 percent, and sports cars and premium sports cars also edged up. At the other end, subcompact cars fell 1.17 percent, their seventh straight weekly drop, with compact cars down 0.78 percent behind them.

On the truck and SUV side, full-size luxury crossovers and SUVs led the way at 0.81 percent. Full-size vans lost 0.78 percent, subcompact luxury crossovers and SUVs gave up 0.65 percent, and minivans slipped 0.45 percent.

Roughly 36 percent of segments moved more than $100 in average value in a single week. Auction conversion rates were mixed, with seasonal conditions, political uncertainty and sellers holding firm on floor prices all playing a part. One thing that has not wavered: buyers are still competing hard for clean, high-quality units, even with a bit more inventory crossing the block.

Retail prices have flattened out

While wholesale corrects, retail is holding its ground. CARFAX Canada’s June report puts the national average used listing price at $31,619 in April, up a modest 0.8 percent from March and down 3.8 percent from a year earlier. Prices have basically flatlined since February after coming down hard from 2025 levels.

AutoTrader measures things differently and lands at $36,713 at the end of March, down 0.3 percent from a year ago and the lowest March reading since 2022. Worth remembering: tariff-driven demand added about $830 to the average used price in 2025, and it took roughly 11 months for that premium to wash out.

CBB’s own retail figure, the average advertised price on Canadian dealer lots, eased to $36,900 in early July across roughly 169,000 listed vehicles.

Buyers have noticed the better value. In CARFAX Canada’s latest survey of people who bought a used vehicle in the past year, 75 percent felt they got good or excellent value for their money, and 65 percent found prices at least somewhat reasonable.

Sales are picking up a little, but still trail last year

CARFAX Canada counted 254,881 used vehicle transactions in April, up 1.2 percent from March but down 7.2 percent from April 2025. Call it a modest rebound after a slow start to the year, with volumes still short of where they were twelve months ago.

AutoTrader’s first-quarter data was a bit brighter, showing modest growth in used sales over last year even against a strong Q1 2025 comparison. Every major province except British Columbia sold more used vehicles in the quarter, Ontario included. The new car market softened, which was expected, since a lot of shoppers pulled their purchases forward into 2025 over tariff worries.

Ontario pricing sits below the national average

Where you sell still matters. AutoTrader’s Q1 report puts Ontario’s average used price around $35,060 in March, flat from a year ago and under the national average. British Columbia remains the most expensive used market in the country, and Vancouver carries the highest average listing price of any major city, up 14.3 percent from last year according to CARFAX. The Atlantic region is the only part of Canada with prices rising both month to month and year to year, and even so it is still the second cheapest market, just behind Quebec.

Supply is building, but the shortage is not over

Used inventory jumped 21.6 percent from March to April as dealers stocked up for selling season, per CARFAX. The catch is that the seasonal build has not fixed the bigger problem. Inventory is essentially flat compared with a year ago.

AutoTrader has used days supply at 46 days, up from 40 at this time last year. SUV inventory grew 14.6 percent year over year while car inventory shrank 5.9 percent. SUVs now make up a record 56 percent of all used listings in the country.

The root cause has not changed. Low new vehicle production and sales from 2020 through 2023 are still choking off lease returns and the flow of used vehicles back into the market, and AutoTrader expects that squeeze to last through 2027. One thing helping on the margins: reciprocal tariffs have cut used vehicle exports, which keeps more supply here in Canada.

What buyers are shopping for

Trucks ruled the first quarter. The top sellers on AutoTrader.ca were the Ford F-150, Nissan Rogue, RAM 1500, GMC Sierra 1500 and Chevrolet Silverado 1500, followed by the Volkswagen Tiguan, Honda CR-V, Honda Civic Sedan, Honda CR-V Hybrid and Toyota RAV4.

On values, CARFAX reports that every one of its most-searched models declined year over year, with sedans like the Honda Civic, Hyundai Elantra and Toyota Corolla taking some of the biggest hits as buyers keep drifting toward SUVs.

Condition is doing a lot of work in pricing too. In April, 30.9 percent of used vehicles listed for sale had reported damage, and those units were listed for an average of $7,464 less than clean ones. The gap swings with the severity of the damage and the type of vehicle, but the message is plain: reported history is worth real money at listing time.

Financing costs are steady, and still high

For dealers whose customers finance, the payment matters as much as the price. Dealertrack Canada data in the AutoTrader report puts the average monthly payment on a used vehicle at $631, down 0.4 percent from last year. New vehicle payments average $915, down 1.7 percent.

Do not expect much movement here. AutoTrader sees payments staying elevated but stable through 2026, since prices are not expected to fall meaningfully, there is little room for rate cuts, and demand looks steady. The Bank of Canada has held its key rate at 2.25 percent as of June.

The EV market is heating up, and running short on supply

Electric vehicles are the liveliest corner of the used market right now. Among Canadians planning to buy a used vehicle in the next 12 months, 22 percent are considering a battery electric vehicle, per CARFAX. Behind that demand: more charging infrastructure and gas prices that averaged 178.8 cents per litre in April, the highest for regular unleaded since July 2022.

Supply has not kept up. BEVs make up just 4 percent of used listings, and what is out there skews expensive. Tesla alone holds 60.4 percent of used EV inventory, mostly Model 3s and Model Ys, while cheaper options like the Nissan LEAF are hard to find. The average used EV listed at $40,893 in April, up 4.7 percent from March after sliding since late 2025.

The wild card is Chinese EVs landing in Canada this year. Volumes will be small at first, but some BYD models are expected to come in under the price of an average used EV today. With the average EV on AutoTrader sitting just north of $60,000, meaningfully cheaper entrants could pull real demand and put downward pressure on EV pricing over time.

What to watch in the second half

A few things will shape the rest of 2026. The CUSMA review is underway this summer, and its outcome will touch pricing and availability in both the new and used markets. A good result for Canada would go a long way toward restoring consumer confidence. And as the pandemic and last year’s tariff run both showed, big moves in the new car market flow into the used market fast.

CBB expects less value decline over the next six months than in the same period last year, but the mood is far from sunny. New vehicle sales keep slowing, incentives keep climbing, and new market entrants are chipping away at consumer confidence in the legacy brands, especially in EVs. Meanwhile, used supply is expected to start rising, and some in the market say they are already seeing it alongside stagnating inventory.

The longer view from AutoTrader: used prices are unlikely to ever return to pre-pandemic levels, thanks to tighter supply, steady demand, population growth and electrification. But after several chaotic years, both the new and used markets are more stable than they have been in a long time, with inventory improving and prices settling into a new normal.

For dealers, the mid-year takeaway is that this market rewards attention to detail at the segment level. Subcompact and compact car values are sliding week after week while trucks and quality SUVs hold firm, a clean history is worth thousands at listing, and the buyers are out there and seeing value. Affordability is what decides which deals get done.

Sources: Canadian Black Book via Auto Remarketing Canada (July 7, 2026) and Canadian Auto Dealer (July 9, 2026); CARFAX Canada Used Vehicle Market Insights, June 2026; AutoTrader Price Index, Q1 2026.