The past 3 quarters of 2022 have been full of problems in the chip supplies and delays in production of vehicles and parts. The brands that will be able to succeed in this environment will be the ones dominating the market for new and used cars at the end of 2022 and beginning of 2023

This year has been unpredictable with significant year-over-year sales surges running back to back with disastrous quarterly declines across large swathes of the Canadian auto industry. Just look at the third-quarter for evidence: traditional Detroit vehicles enjoyed an 18-per-cent sales improvement compared with the same period in 2021, while Asian and European brands combined for a 28-per-cent nosedive.

We know that sales results in 2022 aren’t linked to demand, at least not in the traditional sense. Sales results — the real-world delivery of a vehicle to a customer — are driven by the ability to manufacture a vehicle. Or the lack thereof. And while the historic norm revolved around an automotive industry that built as many vehicles as possible, and incentivized to cope with any surplus, the automotive industry of 2022 is largely incapable of building enough vehicles to restore inventory at dealers.

The final list of Canada’s 10 best-selling vehicles during 2022’s first three-quarters is therefore very much a list that showcases which automakers are most-equipped to overcome a supply chain crisis. That doesn’t make it any less interesting than any other year, particularly given how much movement there’s been throughout much of the top 10.

10. Ford Escape: down 5 per cent in sales

Marginally outpacing the Jeep Wrangler for the final slot in the top 10, the Ford Escape is three spots ahead of where it was at this time one year ago. Don’t thank Q3. As much as the Ford brand had an outstanding summer (up 12 per cent in a market that was down 12 per cent), the Escape’s third-quarter 25-per-cent drop was an outlier.

9. Hyundai Elantra: down 1 per cent

The auto industry’s overall downturn, equal to 150,000 lost sales over the course of nine months, is nothing compared to the relatively tiny passenger car market’s loss of nearly 60,000 units. Cars account for only 18 per cent of the market, but they make up 39 per cent of the lost sales. Yet the Hyundai Elantra has essentially no part in all that. Elantra volume is steady at just over 2,200 units per month, on average, virtually on par with 2021 levels. The Elantra ranked 14th overall at this stage of 2021.

8. Honda CR-V: down 45 per cent

Bearing the brunt not only of an industry-wide shortfall of parts but also the production complications of a generational changeover, the Honda CR-V is shedding volume at a nearly unbelievable rate. Through the first nine months of 2021, Honda Canada had already reported 42,944 sales. Presently switching from the fifth to the sixth-generation CR-V, Honda is tracking toward its lowest-volume CR-V sales year since 2011.

7. Honda Civic: down 27 per cent

The Honda Civic has been Canada’s best-selling car in each of the last 24 years, but 2022’s outcome seems sorely in doubt. The Civic trails its traditional second fiddle by 2,621 units. The Civic was trailing at this stage of 2021, as well, but not by so significant a measure. Down 27 per cent this year, the Civic is emblematic of Honda’s overall predicament: brand-wide volume is down 32 per cent this year.

6. Toyota Corolla: down 21 per cent

On track to end 2022 as Canada’s best-selling passenger car for the first time ever, the Toyota Corolla is still on track to slow at the same precipitous rate as the car market overall. Fewer than one out of every five new vehicles sold in Canada are cars. Granted, the Corolla and Honda Civic account for one out of every four passenger cars sold this year.

5. GMC Sierra: down 9 per cent

Don’t let rising fuel prices stand in your way — pickup trucks are in control in Canada. Even the GMC Sierra, down 9 per cent through 2022’s first nine months, isn’t shedding sales as quickly as the industry at large. Indeed, third-quarter Sierra volume jumped 20 percent, a part of GM’s overall 28-per-cent uptick.

4. Chevrolet Silverado: up 1 per cent

Adding up Chevrolet’s total Silverado volume doesn’t exactly portray GM’s overall impact on Canada’s full-size pickup truck market. Combined, the Silverado and its GMC Sierra twin produced 80,849 sales during 2022’s first three-quarters, very nearly enough to catch Canada’s No.1 vehicle. But not quite.

3. Toyota RAV4: down 20 per cent

Narrowly holding onto a podium position after a third-quarter in which sales slid only 7 per cent, the Toyota RAV4 is a sure bet to finish 2022 as Canada’s best-selling SUV for a seventh consecutive year. The RAV4 actually outsold its top direct rival, the Honda CR-V, by more than two-to-one over the course of the summer.

2. Ram Pick Up: up 4 per cent

With 25 per cent of all full-size pickup sales in Canada, Ram’s truck line has grown its market share by nearly two points compared with the first nine months of 2021. To be fair, Ram has no hope of catching the top truck, besides the fact that GM’s truck twins easily outsell the Ram, as well. But in a market that’s suffered huge declines in 2022, Ram’s Stellantis parent company isn’t going to be disappointed with a 4-per-cent year-over-year increase in volume.

1. Ford F-Series: down 5 per cent

After a third-quarter in which Ford boosted F-Series sales by 16 per cent compared with 2021, this lead is locked in. It would take a small miracle for Ford’s rivals to sell 84,000 trucks in 2022, let alone enough vehicles to match Ford’s year-end total that will surely top 100,000 units for an 11th consecutive year. No other vehicle line in Canadian history has ever hit six digits.

Cain, T. (2022, October 26). Canada’s 10 best-selling vehicles in 2022’s first three-quarters | driving. Driving. Retrieved November 2, 2022, from https://driving.ca/column/driving-by-numbers/canadas-10-best-selling-vehicles-end-2022s-q3

Drop in price for used vehicles in Canada

According to Carpages.ca, used vehicle prices are on the decline across Canada, dropping more than six per cent after peaking during the first half of this year.

The data suggests some types of vehicles are seeing steeper drops than others — sedans the most, minivans the least.

However, according to Tim Dimopolos (CityNews Automotive Specialist) the change is minimum.

“I’ve seen various studies that show a downward trend, but that downward trend is pretty minute,” he said. “The market is still very high comparative to pre-pandemic levels.”

The decline is being attributed to drivers putting off purchases due to large interest rates and the global chips shortage being resolved. The production of new vehicles has increased and people that are interested in a new vehicle are placing orders even if they have to wait for their arrival.

In the other hand, customers in need of a vehicle preferred to go to used car dealers to expedite the process. This is one of the reasons why the change on prices for used car dealers are not that significant.

“Pre-owned sedans have experienced the largest drop in average price point. Between June and July, the average Carpages.ca listing price for a used sedan dipped 6% from the first two quarters of the year, from $30,475 to $28,553,” reads the report from Carpages.ca

“Meanwhile, the average cost of a used pickup truck and SUV both dropped by only about 2% in the same time frame. The average price of a used pickup truck decreased from $42,684 to $42,042, and the average price of a used SUV dipped from $35,159 to $34,303. Minivans, however, declined the least in price at the turn of the third quarter, seeing only a 1% drop in average price ($36,850 from $37,266).”

But these changes are not as impressive as the increase in used cars prices since 2020. The report finds pickup trucks still cost 35 per cent more than they did in the first two quarters of 2020, SUVs cost 43 per cent more, sedans cost 51 per cent more, and those family-toting minivans cost a whopping 93 per cent more.

“And the most expensive category, from the research is older stock. Cars five years and older have seen the greatest appreciation through the pandemic. So that $5,000 or $8,000 car, you’ve seen very sharp increases in prices there. They are very expensive and they are hard to find.” Dimopolos commented 

Lloyd, M. (n.d.). Canadian used car prices beginning to drop: report. CityNews. Retrieved October 14, 2022, from https://vancouver.citynews.ca/2022/09/15/used-car-prices-dropping-report/

AutoTrader’s August sales figures are in, and while the new vehicle market prices are still on the increase, due to continued low supply and high demand, it appears that used vehicles supply is finally increasing, leading to a slight drop in prices that is predicted to continue into 2023, says the new report.

Canadian auto dealer spoke with Baris Akyurek, Director of Marketing Intelligence at TRADER, who says the market indicators are generally positive for dealers.

“New car prices are up by 18.3% in August, a 1.1% month over month increase,” he said. “So the average price of a new car in Canada in August was just over $56,000. On the used side of things, our July report saw the first decline in 17 months. The August data shows prices saw another 0.4% decline. We believe that the used prices have peaked in June.”

These numbers are based on the sales on Autotrader.com, so don’t include pre-ordered vehicles, but he said the demand for new vehicles is still high, and supply seems to be improving. “The consensus in the new market for 2022 is that there’s going to be some improvement in inventory availability for the second half of the year.”

The used car market is undergoing a shift away from the very constrained supply, slowly improving throughout the first half of the year and now levelling off. “Used car availability has been going up,” he said. “Inventory has been going up pretty much since around February and it went up consistently. And in the last couple of months, it’s kind of plateaued. So on a year over year basis, when we look at our marketplace, there are more cars available compared to last year.

Consumer trends are evolving along with the market as new cars become available. “The last research we did found that 36 per cent of  consumers are willing to switch from new to used, but even with those buyers moving to the used side of things there’s quite a few new consumers. They are still waiting for the availability. So we believe the demand on the new car side has been pretty strong, and it’s gonna stay strong for quite a while, until the production levels come back to somewhat normal levels.”

The surge in supply of used cars, leading to lower prices has been seen across Canada, with the exception of BC.  “But when we looked at the prices by province we don’t see these declines in BC yet. Looking at our marketplace data, the demand seems to be still pretty strong in BC. Therefore we haven’t seen the the decline in prices just yet.”

Resource:

dealer, C. auto, Moskowitz, B., McAlister, Z., Ockedahl, C., & dealer, C. auto. (2022, September 21). Used vehicle prices peaked in June, new cars still hot: Autotrader interview. Canadian Auto Dealer. Retrieved September 26, 2022, from https://canadianautodealer.ca/2022/09/used-vehicle-prices-peaked-in-june-new-cars-still-hot-autotrader-interview/ 

The wholesale market as a whole continues to slightly decline, down -0.26%, more than the 2017-2019 average, which was -0.21%, according to Canadian Black Book. The Canadian wholesale market for used cars was down -0.40%, compared to being down -0.22% last week. The truck/SUV market improved, but continued on a downhill path of -0.12% for the week, compared to the previous -0.22%, compared to the 2017-2019 average of -0.21%.

The US market exchange rate remains favourable for exportation, Arbitrage opportunities have continued to bring US buyers, causing a steady flow of vehicles south across the border. Gas prices are dipping slightly, but are still an influence on buyer behaviour, says the report. “Supply remains low while demand is high on both sides of the border. Upstream channels continue to tap supply before it can be made available at physical auctions.”

Only two segments of the car market made modest gains, with sub-compact cars up 0.27%, and prestige luxury cars up 0.04%. Mid-size cars were down the most, at -1.07%, with full-size cars down -1.02%.

For trucks/SUVs, there were only three slight price increases, with full size vans up just 0.45%, minivans up 0.34% and sub-compact crossovers up 0.16%. Compact vans declined the most, down a full -1.61%, followed by sub-compact luxury crossovers which were down -0.71% for the week.

The average listing price for used vehicles increased slightly week over week, as the 14-day moving average is just above $37,000. Analysis is based on approximately 120,000 vehicles listed for sale on Canadian dealer lots.

In other news, The Bank of Canada expects inflation to go “a little over” eight per cent for the month of June and stay in that range for a few more months, Governor Tiff Macklem told a business group in a webcast transcript released late Friday.

Bank of Canada increases policy interest rate by 100 basis points, continues quantitative tightening, and the Canadian dollar strengthened against the greenback on Monday, and the yield on benchmark government debt climbed. The loonie was trading 0.5% higher at C$1.2965 to the greenback, or 77.13 U.S. cents, after trading in a range of 1.2899 to 1.3029.

Source:

dealer, C. auto, Ockedahl, C., dealer, C. auto, & McAlister, Z. (2022, July 21). Used car and truck market continues gradual decline. Canadian Auto Dealer. Retrieved July 25, 2022, from https://canadianautodealer.ca/2022/07/used-car-and-truck-market-continues-gradual-decline/

With inflation and interest rates both up sharply, and gas prices at record levels, DAC reached out to consumers to get their input about how the economic situation may impact their intention to purchase a vehicle this year. Unsurprisingly, nearly half of respondents suggested that they are less likely to take the plunge into the vehicle market given the current economic concerns. Looking across the country, consumers from the Atlantic region and Alberta were the most hesitant, citing ‘less likely’ at 57.0% and 56.9% respectively.

While consumers seem to be echoing Elon Musk and his “super bad feeling” about the economy it should be noted that current consumer actions are showing a completely different perspective. Across the wide range of economic variables tracked by DAC, consumer spending is at record levels – often well above the previous highs of 2019. OpenTable reports restaurant reservations in Canada 15% above pre-pandemic levels, RBC cardholder spending data is tracking 30% higher than 2019, Statistics Canada retail sales data jumped yet again in the most recent month. One variable after another, shows consumers are (currently at least) spending at a torrid pace.

“When it comes to the outlook for vehicle purchases, future consumer behaviour is far from clear” commented Andrew King, Managing Partner at DAC. He continued, “while such concerns are in some way moot until vehicle supply issues are resolved, they are critical for the future outlook of the industry.” As such, DAC continues to track a broad range of economic variables closely and each quarter publishes a vehicle sales forecast by segment, province, and powertrain type for the coming 5 years.

More information on these numbers can be found in the DesRosiers Automotive Reports published by DesRosiers Automotive Consultants Inc.

Copyright © 2022 DesRosiers Automotive Consultants Inc., All rights reserved.

In a report released by AutoTrader.ca this week, it was revealed that auto prices are at record highs across the country. Used auto prices continued to gradually increase throughout the first part of 2022, which is “the opposite of the pricing trends observed in previous years before the pandemic. This trend is similar for new vehicle prices, which also continued to rise.”

Well-publicized inventory shortages due to global events, the pandemic, and material scarcity, which has pushed the demand for new vehicles into the used vehicle market, causing upward price pressure on both segments. Quebec’s prices are not as high as the rest of the country, but have been increasing more rapidly to catch up.

SUVs, minivans and trucks are experiencing the strongest  increases as a result of “growing consumer demand for larger vehicles, with minivan prices increasing at the fastest rate given shortages in the segment.”

According to the study, the price of used North American vehicles has been stabilizing with increased levels of used inventory. AutoTrader predicts that, as vehicle production returns to capacity, it will ‘relieve pressure from car buyers switching to used, which will have a calming effect on price inflation for both new and used vehicles.”

Anecdotal evidence suggests that the Quebec used car low inventory situation may have arisen from dealers outside the province purchasing inventory from Quebec, but the situation is slowly improving.

The top 10 most-searched vehicles over the study period were:

1. Honda Civic
2. Ford Mustang (up from #5)
3. Ford F-150 (down from #2)
4. BMW 3 Series
5. Porsche 911 (up from #6)
6. Toyota RAV4 (down from #3)
7. Mercedes-Benz C-Class
8. Chevrolet Corvette (up from #14)
9. Mercedes-Benz E-Class (down from #8)
10. Jeep Wrangler (up from #11)

In general, prices have increased substantially year-over-year across the board, from Alberta, with the lowest increase at 32.9%, to Quebec, with the highest, at 43 per cent.

dealer, C. auto, MacDonald, S., Phillips, T., dealer, C. auto, & McAlister, Z. (2022, June 15). Autotrader reports record high prices in Canadian Auto Market. Canadian Auto Dealer. Retrieved June 16, 2022, from https://canadianautodealer.ca/2022/06/autotrader-reports-record-high-prices-in-canadian-auto-market/